Unscarcity Crossroad Notes

"The Geopolitics of Abundance: Network States and the End of Resource Wars"

"How falling resource costs (solar desalination, fusion) and digital organization (Network States) are rendering the traditional Westphalian Nation-State obsolete."

2 min read 457 words /a/geopolitics-network-states

The Geopolitics of Abundance

The End of Resource Wars

For 5,000 years, geopolitics has been driven by a simple equation: Land = Wealth.

  • The Nile: Egypt must control the river to survive.
  • The Oil Fields: Nations invade neighbors to secure energy.
  • Lebensraum: Empires expand to feed their populations.

In an Unscarcity world, this logic collapses.

The Solar Desalination Pivot

In 2025, the cost of solar photovoltaic (PV) energy dropped below $0.02/kWh in sunny regions. This triggered a phase change in water economics.

  • Old Math: Desalination is too energy-intensive. We must fight over rivers.
  • New Math: With near-free solar energy, desalination becomes cheap (€1-3 per cubic meter).
  • Result: Israel, once water-starved, now exports water. The “Water Wars” predicted between India/Pakistan or Ethiopia/Egypt become economically irrational. It is cheaper to build a solar plant than to launch a missile.

The Fusion Peace

When commercial fusion (Helion, CFS) comes online (2028-2035), the link between “Territory” and “Energy” is severed forever. You don’t need to conquer an oil field. You just need a reactor. Energy becomes a local manufacturing issue, not a global supply chain issue.

The Rise of the Network State

If you don’t need land for resources, what binds a nation together?
Balaji Srinivasan proposes the Network State: a country that starts in the cloud and acquires territory later.

The Logic of Reverse Secession

  • Start Online: Gather a community of millions aligned by values (e.g., “The Green Commons”, “The Keto State”).
  • Build an Economy: Use crypto-currency and internal trade to build wealth.
  • Crowdfund Territory: Buy land in existing nations (creating “nodes” of the state) rather than conquering it.
  • Diplomatic Recognition: Use economic leverage to gain sovereignty treaties.

The “One Commandment” Society

Traditional nations are “accidents of birth”—you are stuck with neighbors you disagree with. Network States are “communities of choice.”

  • High Alignment: Everyone agrees on the core mission.
  • Low Friction: Laws are smart contracts, not bureaucratic mazes.
  • Exit Rights: If the state fails, you leave (digital migration).

The Global South Leapfrog

Just as Kenya leaped over “Branch Banking” to “Mobile Money” (M-Pesa), the Global South will leapfrog “Nation Building” to “Network States.”

  • Institutional Void: Weak central governments in some regions are not a bug; they are a feature for Network States. They offer a blank canvas for new governance models (Charter Cities) like Prospera (Honduras) or experimental zones in Africa.
  • The Talent Magnet: These zones will compete for citizens. The “Passport” becomes a subscription service. “Join us—we have the best healthcare algorithm.”

Conclusion:
The map of 2050 will not look like a Risk board with 200 solid colors. It will look like a pointillist painting—thousands of sovereign nodes, connected by the internet, trading in abundance. The Westphalian Nation-State is the “Landline” of geopolitics; the Network State is the iPhone.

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