Goldman Says AI Will Displace One in Eleven American Workers, and the Layoffs Are Waiting for a Recession. The Same Morning, a Bank Whose Profits Rose 12% Cut 5,000 Jobs Without Waiting
About This Episode
Fortune reported on October 22 that Goldman Sachs economist Joseph Briggs now estimates AI could displace about 9% of US workers, roughly 15 million, with the damage concentrated in the next recession because companies automate when revenue slows; routine-job share fell in steps in each past downturn and never recovered. The same morning Barclays announced 5,000 cuts, about 5% of staff and 60% in support functions including developers, 'driven by AI', while reporting pre-tax profit up 12%. Pantheon Macroeconomics separately puts current AI-linked US job losses above 10,000 a month.
Our Take
Goldman says the big AI layoff wave is waiting for the next recession, but the first wave is already here and arrives in good times: profitable companies cutting people to pay for the machines, so the floor has to be built on belief-time, not capability-time.
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Anticipatory Displacement: Losing Jobs to an AI Strategy
Goldman's model says AI layoffs are countercyclical and wait for a recession; this framework names the first wave that doesn't wait, cuts made during growth to fund an AI bet, which is exactly what a profitable Barclays did the same morning.
AI Job Displacement Statistics 2025-2026: 120,136 Cuts
The running tally of AI-attributed US layoffs and the Labor Cliff concept give the hosts the baseline against which Goldman's 'cooled' claim and Pantheon's 10,000-a-month figure can be read.